Preços do petróleo e a complexidade da pauta de exportação
o paradoxo do caso colombiano
Resumo
O objetivo deste artigo é estabelecer o efeito da queda dos preços do petróleo sobre a complexidade ou intensidade tecnológica da pauta exportadora colombiana, especialmente nas exportações industriais. Para tanto, foram desenvolvidas três análises quantitativas: i) uma análise descritiva por meio da Matriz de Contabilidade Social, ii) a estimação da função impulso-resposta de um modelo VAR estrutural entre a taxa de câmbio e as exportações industriais e iii) o cálculo do PRODY e do EXPY como aproximação para avaliar a deterioração da complexidade da pauta exportadora colombiana. Os resultados encontrados neste artigo indicam que a queda dos preços do petróleo bruto em nível mundial afetou negativamente — ao contrário da intuição econômica — a complexidade da pauta de exportação nacional. Tudo isso, com base no fato de que o aparelho produtivo colombiano é altamente dependente da importação de bens de capital e do consumo intermediário para a produção de bens manufaturados de maior complexidade tecnológica. Como resultado da desvalorização do peso colombiano em relação ao dólar norte-americano, as importações foram afetadas, o que por sua vez impactou as exportações de bens mais complexos.
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