Impacto del desplazamiento forzado en el crecimiento demográfico y el desempleo de Bogotá

Abstract

This document shows that the displacement forced was a detenninant variable in the change of the population's components and of the unemployment rate in Bogotá. For this, the evolution is described and the composition of the different demographic components, analyzing the incident of the displacement forced in the population growth rate and the net rate of migration. Besides, this document catrries out a recount of the main indicators of the labor market in Bogotá, as well as also includes an analysis of the statistical sources, of the population's projections, the unemployment, and the displacement forced for the period 1996-2003. lt is found that the data of the population's projections and of the unemployment rate they are found rejected, complicating the veracity in the figures; this phenomenon also occurs with the data of the displacement forced, since the estimated data differ considerably according to the source. To be able to explain the incident of the displacement forced in the unemployment in Bogotá, a model is formulated where the dependent variable is the number of unemployed in Bogotá and as variables explanatory three variables are utilized: The number of homicides to level national like instrumental variable that permits to measure the effect of the displacement forced, the GDP and the inflation. The results of the model show and they quantify the direct relation between number of homicides and unemployment, as well as the inverse relation among unemployment with the inflation and the GDP.